In 2021, Italy overtook New Zealand and Iran to become the world’s second largest producer of kiwi. In Southern Italy, bananas, mango, avocados, lychees are being grown, with Sicily expected to produce more than 400,000 tonnes this year. All this would not have been possible 10 years ago, when temperatures were much colder.
Across the world, we are grappling with a climate crisis that in 2021 displaced 59.1 million people, is causing unprecedented heat waves in Europe and China that have already killed more than 12,000 this year, and brought Madagascar to the brink of famine where thousands were resorting to eat ashes mixed with shoe leather. It is, unreservedly, a disaster that will require massive mobilization. In some places however, climate change is opening up new opportunities.
Just as Europe is beginning to become warm enough for tropical fruit production, vineyards are facing increasing challenges. In parts of France, Merlot has become harder and harder to grow, with the grape burning on the vine during particularly warm conditions. Some believe the Merlot grape could become extinct within the century, but already, vineyards are struggling. Since grapes become riper on the vine sooner, alcohol content in wines have also climbed to 15%, whereas two decades earlier it was usually 12%.
The changes have meant vineyards have had to adapt and in some cases, relocate. In the past two decades, a world-class sparkling wine industry has blossomed in England, where it was previously too cold for grapes. Champagne companies such as Taittinger and Vranken-Pommery Monopole have been on a buying spree, with more than 1 million vines planted in the southern coast (Kent, Sussex, Dorset, Cornwall) in 2018. This year, Tinwood’s Blanc de Blancs scooped two prestigious gold gongs in the sparkling wine category at the International Wine Challenge and The International Wine & Spirits Challenge, a first for English wine.
Climate scientists believe that in the next 20 years, temperatures could warm further, making England suitable for the production of red wine grapes such as Cabernet Sauvignon and Pinot Noir.
One of the biggest “winners” of global warming is Russia, which is poised to become a juggernaut of global food production. For centuries, most of the eastern half of Russia was an inhospitable, infertile tundra, with only the southernmost regions bordering China suitable for farming. That is fast changing.
Nadezhda Tchebakova, one of the Russia’s leading climate scientists, estimated that by 2080, Russia’s permafrost will be reduced by more than half. Half of Siberia (more than 2 million square miles) would also become suitable for farming by 2080. The Russian government is fully aware of this: in 2020, it revealed its national climate action plan, where it outlined steps to “take full advantage” of warming.
Already, Russia has a predominant position in wheat production. Since 2000, Russia’s agricultural production have jumped sixteen-fold while wheat exports have nearly tripled since 2015. Its blockade of Odessa, Ukraine, was as much about controlling wheat exports from its biggest competitors as it was about choking off Ukrainian resistance. In a paper published in MDPI (Basel), scientists observed that climate change caused an increase in winter wheat yield from 1% in the south of the Central federal district to 17% in the south of the Volga region in the last 20 years.
It isn’t just Russia which will become a global production powerhouse from warming weather. A new economic superpower could be Canada, on which rising temperatures would be transformative: by 2080, 4.2 million square kilometres of previously non-arable land in the country will become warm enough to farm crops like wheat. This would effectively quintuple the effective agricultural land in Canada and make it the world’s top country by agricultural land area, overtaking China. Marshall Burke, a professor of earth science at Stanford, estimated that by 2100, while India, China and the US’s growth would be cut by nearly half due to climate change, Canada’s GDP could grow by 246% during the same period.
That being said, a major problem for both Russia and Canada would be manpower. Faced with declining populations (not including migration), both countries would be hard-pressed to take advantage of the shift. Could Russia and Canada become a top destination for climate refugees in the future?
It isn’t only land that will see changing fortunes. The Northwest Passage through the Arctic used to be only navigable for short periods during the summer, usually about 30-60 days of the year. It was the unviability of this route that spurred the development of the Panama and Suez Canals which today carries 17% of global trade.
However, warming waters have meant that the Northwest Passage is increasingly viable. For ships transporting goods from Asia to Europe or the Eastern United States, the passage would cut thousands of miles or 40% of time needed. Climate scientists have projected that an increase of 2 °C would make the passage 100% navigable for an additional 100-200 days a year. The opening up of the Artic would completely rewire global shipping routes. In full acknowledgement of this route, Canada has already approved a CAD147.6 million upgrade of a rail line that goes all the way up to Manitoba and is rehabilitating the Port of Churchill.
Climate change will destroy many existing ecosystems and cause unprecedented global suffering. For some geographies however, it will bring immense growth and completely reconfigure the sinews of the world economy.
We’ve always taken the big picture and long-term approach to our investments. Beyond the frenzy for renewable energy, carbon capture, and electric vehicles, there lie other huge shifts related to climate change that will yield both threat and opportunity. Looking at the coming decades, we have to acknowledge the changes brought about by ecological disaster and adapt.
Until next month,
Ong Kar Jin
CSO at nØught labs